A Modelling Framework for Assessing Adaptive Management Options of Finnish Agrifood Systems to Climate Change

Abstract

Improved assessment methods for agriculture production systems are needed to identify the risks and opportunities related to global changes in climate, markets and policies, and the consequences of alternative options of coping with and mitigating the changes. This paper presents the AGRISIMU modelling framework developed for ex-ante assessment of alternative policy and management options meant to support farms and agrifood sector adapt to climate change, maintain biodiversity and reduce nutrient emissions under Finnish conditions. The modelling framework represents a novel approach to the integration of data and output from several existing models like a dynamic regional sector model of Finnish agriculture, a farm-level optimisation model, a dynamic crop growth simulation model and models describing the nutrient dynamics in agricultural systems and a hydrological rainfall-runoff model. The framework is particularly aimed for Nordic conditions and to serve as an assessment tool that considers multiple factor and scale interactions.