How much pressure does the "spiral of silence" put on the expression of opinion? An estimation of the reinforcement effect of public opinion using a synergetic model

Abstract

Numerous studies have been conducted on the spiral of silence, all of which draw upon the relationship be tween people's perceptions of support for their opinions and their willingness to express those opinions. Beyond this relationship the theory suggests a process of self-reinforcement which finally leads to a "silent majority". This article develops a model which formalizes a dynamic process of this type and is able to measure the degree of reflexive reinforcement of the process using a specific parameter. Data from the originator of the theory, Noelle-Neumann, give empirical estimations of this parameter, which is sufficient to justify some self-reinforcement, but not large enough to create a silent majority.