Browsing by Author "Trimborn, Timo"

It was always considered to be a major achievement of modern business cycle economics that it was solidly grounded in neoclassical growth theory. Preserving this joint foundation, however, imposes a discipline on the specification of models with variable capital utilization. In this note we show that conventional specifications of the depreciation cost of capital utilization and the labor supply elasticity, introduced into business cycle theory to generate a satisfactory amplification of shocks, entail counterfactual growth dynamics: the positive association between capital stock and GDP along the growth path turns negative. Across economies with access to the same technology, the economy with the lowest capital stock per capita is predicted to produce the highest output per capita. We compute lower and upper bounds for the involved elasticities between which these counterfactual dynamics are avoided.

This paper characterizes the optimal time path of R&D and capital subsidization. Starting from the steady state under current R&D subsidization in the US, the R&D subsidy should significantly jump upwards and then slightly decrease over time. There is a small loss in welfare, however, from immediately setting the R&D subsidy to its optimal long run level, compared to a time-varying R&D subsidy. The results do not depend on the financing scheme, namely lump sum taxation or factor income taxation. The optimal capital subsidy is time-varying under factor income taxation, but time-invariant when subsidies are financed by lump sum taxes. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Unhealthy people adapt to their poor state of health and are usually happier than expected by healthy people. In this paper, we investigate how adapting to a deteriorating state of health affects health spending, life expectancy, and the value of life. We set up a life-cycle model in which individuals are subject to physiological aging, calibrate it with data from gerontology, and compare behavior and outcomes of adapting and non-adapting individuals. While adaptation generally increases lifetime utility (by about 2 percent), its impact on health behavior and longevity depends crucially on whether individuals are aware of their adaptive behavior, i.e. whether they adapt in a naive or sophisticated way. We also compute the QALY change implied by health shocks and discuss whether and how adaptation influences results and the desirability of positive health innovations.

We set up a neoclassical growth model extended by a corporate sector, an investment and finance decision of firms, and a set of taxes on capital income. We provide analytical dynamic scoring of taxes on corporate income, dividends, capital gains, other private capital income, and depreciation allowances and identify the intricate ways through which capital taxation affects tax revenue in general equilibrium. We then calibrate the model for the US and explore quantitatively the revenue effects from capital taxation. We take adjustment dynamics after a tax change explicitly into account and compare with steady-state effects. We find, among other results, a self-financing degree of corporate tax cuts of about 70-90% and a very flat Latter curve for all capital taxes as well as for tax depreciation allowances. Results are strongest for the tax on capital gains. The model predicts for the US that total tax revenue increases by about 0.3-1.2% after abolishment of the tax. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

We propose a simple and powerful numerical algorithm to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with rare events. In this paper we transform the dynamic system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retarded type. We apply the Waveform Relaxation algorithm, i.e., we provide a guess of the policy function and solve the resulting system of (deterministic) ordinary differential equations by standard techniques. For parametric restrictions, analytical solutions to the stochastic growth model and a novel solution to Lucas' endogenous growth model under Poisson uncertainty are used to compute the exact numerical error. We show how (potential) catastrophic events such as rare natural disasters substantially affect the economic decisions of households. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

For the population over 65, long-term care (LTC) expenditure constitutes a considerable share in health care expenditures. In this paper, we decompose health care into medical care, intended to improve one’s state of health, and personal care required for daily routine. Personal care can be either carried out autonomously or by a third party. In the course of aging, autonomous personal care is gradually substituted by LTC. We set up a life-cycle model in which individuals are subject to physiological aging, calibrate it with data from gerontology, and analyze the interplay between medical care and LTC. In comparative dynamic analyses, our theory-based approach allows us to causally investigate the impact of better health and rising life expectancy, triggered by higher income and better medical technology, on the expected expenditures for LTC in the future. We predict that a one percentage increase in life expectancy is associated with a 1.75-percentage increase in expected LTC expenditure. In terms of present value at age 20, this elasticity declines to about 1.0 percent. Even when considering different magnitudes and compositions of shocks in medical technology and income, we find that these elasticities remain remarkably stable. Previous article in issue

We determine the optimal growth policy within a comprehensive endogenous growth model. The model accounts for important elements of the tax transfer system and for transitional dynamics. It captures the three main growth engines based on standard ingredients in order to understand the quantitative policy and welfare implications of the existing theory. Our calibrated model indicates that the current policy leads to severe underinvestment in both R&D and physical capital, implying that both R&D and capital investment subsidies should be increased substantially. We argue that previous research has overlooked a strong evidence for the welfare significance of the quest for the optimal growth policy by failing to calibrate the distortionary tax system.

I propose a simple method to compute the transition process in continuous-time dynamic equilibrium models with occasionally binding inequality constraints. By augmenting the dynamic system with an auxiliary variable standard algorithms are able to solve the extended dynamic system taking the inequality into account. The procedure can handle any sequence of regimes with binding and non-binding constraints and determines the exact pattern of regimes endogenously. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved,

In developed countries, women are expected to live about 4-5 years longer than men. In this paper, we develop a novel approach to gauge the extent to which gender differences in longevity can be attributed to gender-specific preferences and health behavior. We set up a physiologically founded model of health deficit accumulation and calibrate it using recent insights from gerontology. From fitting life cycle health expenditure and life expectancy, we obtain estimates of the gender-specific preference parameters. We then perform the counterfactual experiment of endowing women with the preferences of men. In our benchmark scenario, this reduces the gender gap in life expectancy from 4.6 to 1.4 years. When we add gender-specific preferences for unhealthy consumption, the model can motivate up to 89 percent of the gender gap. Our theory offers also an economic explanation for why the gender gap declines with rising income.

Market imperfections may lead to underinvestment in dynamic general equilibrium models. An interesting but unexplored question is whether policy interventions which attenuate underinvestment gaps necessarily imply that consumption will initially decline. By employing a calibrated version of a standard R&D-based growth model, we show that raising the R&D subsidy rate may not only close the R&D underinvestment gap but also raise consumption per capita at all times ("intertemporal free lunch"). We also discuss the general mechanics of such an intertemporal free lunch in both one-sector and multi-sector growth models and further examples. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Most of the discussion about fiscal stimulus focuses on the multiplier of government spending on impact. In this paper we shift the focus to the multiplier at the end, i.e., to the period in which a deficit spending program terminates. We show that recent time-series analyses and neoclassical as well new Keynesian business cycle models predict that the multiplier turns negative before spending expires. This means that aggregate output at the time of expiry of fiscal stimulus is lower than it could be without deficit spending. Here, we show why this phenomenon is a general outcome of mainstream business cycle theory and explain the underlying mechanism. Using phase diagram analysis, we prove that the aggregate capital stock at the time of expiry of fiscal stimulus is lower than it would be without a deficit spending program. This fact explains why aggregate output is below its laissez faire level as well.