Browsing by Author "Michaelis, Christian"

Abstract The high rates of premature contract termination (PCT) in vocational education and training (VET) programs have led to an increasing number of studies examining the reasons why adolescents drop out. Since adolescents’ trajectories after a PCT are quite diverse, a thorough assessment of different dropout directions is called for. However, empirical studies that distinguish between dropout directions are still scarce. The same is true for studies that differentiate between PCTs initiated by the trainees themselves and those initiated by the training company. Based on data from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) on trainees in German dual VET programs (n = 5823), this study identifies six different dropout directions: (1) downward PCT into unqualified employment or unemployment, (2) downward PCT into a prevocational program, (3) horizontal PCT that represents a change of training company or (4) a change of occupation, and (5) upward PCT into general education or (6) higher education. Using multinomial logistic regression models we examine the effect of (a) the initiating party and (b) self-reported PCT reasons of trainees on dropout directions. Regarding trainees’ reasons we include reasons related to different aspects of the training (personal reasons, not the desired training occupation, financial reasons, training quality, conflicts, excessive demand, and being offered a different training position). The results indicate that in cases where trainees are dismissed by the training company, a horizontal change to a different training company becomes more likely, while the probability of an upward dropout into higher education decreases. Regarding PCT decisions made by trainees themselves, a downward PCT into unqualified employment or unemployment is more likely if personal reasons were the cause of a PCT decision. Moreover, the probability of a change of training company (horizontal PCT) increases in cases of conflict and if there is a prospect of a different training position, and decreases if the training position is not the desired occupation. A change of occupation (horizontal PCT) is more likely when there is the opportunity for a different training position available. Furthermore, upward PCTs (both into further general education and higher education) are more likely in cases where the training was in a field that was not the desired occupation. The probability of upward PCT into higher education decreases when there are conflicts and excessive demands, while upward PCTs into general education are significantly less likely when a different training position is obtained. The differential effects that occur for different types of PCTs emphasize that adolescents dropping out of VET cannot be treated as a homogenous group. Consequently, the results underscore the importance of conducting a more thorough assessment of both dropout directions and the initiating party of a PCT in future research.

Background For adolescents, preventing a premature training termination (PTT) and withdrawal from education and training after a PTT is an important societal task. While studies reveal that early-risk factors such as a low educational background or selected personality constructs are relevant for predicting PTT, less is known about subsequent trajectories after a PTT and the factors that determine them. Methods Using data from the German National Educational Panel Study, we examine the influence of early-risk factors and personality constructs on the first PTT (n = 4892) in the training course using a binomial logistic regression model. In a second step, by using a sequence and cluster analysis we explore subsequent trajectory patterns within 24 months after PTT (n = 944) and analyze the influence of early-risk factors and personality constructs on subsequent trajectory clusters after PTT. Results We identify 7 different trajectory clusters, of which three clusters show risk-related trajectories (37.0%) with tendencies to withdraw from education and training. Furthermore, our analysis confirms the relevance of early-risk factors for predicting PTT as well as trajectories after PTT: a low educational qualification, graduation after more than the typical number of years, and low parental education increase the probability of discontinuities in adolescents\’ educational and training paths. Additionally, it is important to consider the influence of personality traits on the subsequent trajectories: adolescents with strong openness tend to have continued school attendance after PTT, indicating a constructive career adaptation process, while adolescents with strong self-efficacy seem to assess their chances in the labor market as positive even without a vocational qualification. Conclusions The longitudinal perspective on the consequences of a first termination of a VET program revealed that educational trajectories after a PTT are highly heterogeneous indicating the need for different types of policy measures to minimize the incidence of PTT and withdrawing from education and training.

Abstract Evidence on the extent to which dropout intention can serve as a valid predictor of dropout decisions remains scarce. This study first presents the results of a systematic literature review of 14 studies examining the relationship between dropout intention and actual dropout in post-secondary education (vocational education and training [VET] or higher education). Second, we examine a longitudinal dataset of prospective chefs surveyed at the beginning (t1), the second half of the first year (t2), and the second year of the dual VET programme (t3). We examine the relationship between self-reported dropout intention and trainees’ actual dropout behaviour. Additionally, we analyse development profiles of trainees’ dropout intention using latent profile analysis. The review results provide strong support for a significant positive relationship between dropout intention and actual dropout (effect sizes vary between studies and contexts/types of dropout). In line, aspiring chefs’ dropout intention is significantly positively correlated with actual dropout (r = 0.201). Three development profiles were identified during VET: (1) stable, low dropout intention, (2) stable, medium dropout intention, and (3) increasing dropout intention. We conclude that dropout intention is positively related to actual dropout. As the extent to which dropout intention actually leads to dropout behaviour in VET also depends on external factors (e.g., labour market situation, alternative options), the predictive power of dropout intention may be limited. This is suggested by the weak correlation between dropout intention and actual dropout and the profile of trainees with increasing dropout intention who nevertheless persisted until year 2 of VET.

Positive effects of person-environment fit on job satisfaction and persistence are well documented. However, little is known about the consequences of person-vocation (P-V) fit for vocational education and training (VET). Using data from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS), we examine the influence of selected P-V fit indicators (educational match, interest congruence, skill congruence) on training satisfaction and premature contract termination (PCT) for 4,097 trainees in VET. We find that most P-V incongruences do not lead to negative consequences. Training satisfaction is not affected by interest congruence and skill congruence. However, moderate overeducation (intermediately qualified adolescents working in occupations with high shares of low-qualified trainees) enhances training satisfaction. For PCT, there is a general effect of undereducation; undereducation increases the probability of PCT independent of educational qualification for the occupation. PCT is not affected by skill congruence and only for Realistic interests, congruence with the vocational environment reduces PCT probability.

Abstract Several studies have analyzed the outcome of vocational education and training (VET); however, they primarily compared individuals with different qualification levels. This perspective neglects the fact that adolescents can differ in their training courses and transition to the labor market. Thus far, evidence on the consequences of different VET-to-labor market transition patterns is scarce. Therefore, the present study distinguished different VET-to-labor market transition patterns of German trainees and analyzed the long-term consequences on subjective well-being (SWB) later in life. Our results show in-between differences in the SWB of trainees in further life by different VET-to-labor market transition patterns. Compared to individuals with direct VET-to-labor market transitions, individuals who experienced a premature training termination and did not return to institutionalized education were more likely to have lower SWB later in life. Additionally, participating in general or higher education programs after VET seems to be beneficial. However, completing multiple VET programs did not influence SWB. The results underline the importance of strategies to prevent early leaving from education and training.

Context: Due to limited geographical mobility, opportunities for adolescents interested in company-based training are primarily dependent on regional training offers. Competition for company-based training among adolescents varies regionally, and thus, the chance to obtain a training contract varies as well. In this article, we investigate the opportunities for adolescents to obtain company-based training depending on regional training market conditions. We assume that the advantages of obtaining a company-based training place exist in areas of decreased competition among interested adolescents. However, the question is whether those advantages will differ between adolescents depending on characteristics such as school achievement, socioeconomic status or migration background. Furthermore, we assume that, above all, market-induced ease-of-access to company-based training exists for occupations that face hiring challenges and indicates less occupational attractiveness.Methods: The transition from school (after 9th and 10th grade) to company-based training is analysed using data from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS, starting cohort 4). This dataset is merged with the official regional training market data regarding local supply and demand ratio for training places (called "SDR") in the dual system of Vocational Education and Training in Germany. Logistic regressions are used to predict the probabilities of obtaining a training place. The focus lies on the interaction effects between SDR and adolescents’ education-related characteristics (school certificates and grade point average), socioeconomic characteristics and migration backgrounds. Subgroup-specific analyses of different clusters of hiring challenges for trainee occupations are used to examine whether these effects are valid for all occupations.Findings: The results confirm regional differences in obtaining a training place depending on the SDR. Here, applicant hierarchies according to educational achievement continue to exist if competition for company-based training among adolescents decreases. Beneficiaries are better-qualified adolescents with poorer GPAs. SDR hardly influences social disparities. However, the advantages of obtaining a company-based training place primarily exist for training occupations with hiring challenges when competition for company-based training among adolescents decreases. These occupations have a significantly lower occupational prestige (ISEI-08) compared to occupations with fewer hiring challenges.Conclusion: The results make it clear that market-induced ease-of-access to company-based training is not necessarily an advantage. Because the findings indicate that the advantages pertain mainly to low-prestige occupations, it can be assumed that career-path disadvantages can arise down the road. Future studies should investigate this in more differentiated ways. 

Abstract Research shows a heterogeneous picture of migration-related disparities regarding adolescents’ educational trajectories at the end of lower-secondary education. Among other disparities, migrants face large disadvantages with regard to the transition to vocational education and training (VET). They are, however, also more likely to change to upper-secondary school tracks at the end of lower-secondary education. Using longitudinal data drawn from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS, Starting Cohort 4), this study empirically captures patterns in school-leavers’ transition trajectories after lower-secondary education and empirically tests theoretical mechanisms of migration-related educational inequalities. Building on the concept of secondary effects of migrant origin, this study asks to what extent self-selection explains migration-related disparities in the educational trajectories at the end of lower-secondary education. Particular attention is devoted to the extent to which migration-related inequalities in adolescents’ transitions can be explained by differences in (1) rational choice factors and (2) the educational expectations and demands of parents and friends. The results show that rational choice factors and the educational expectations of social groups largely contribute to migration-related educational inequalities. The results provide important starting points for educational policy discussions on strategies and measures to address migration-related inequalities in the transition to VET.